Considering the amount of alt-a and option ARM mortgages that will reset in one and two years (big chunk in 2011, according to data on FED of NY website), I agree with you that the stress tests scenario are far too optimistic. There will be much more foreclosures in the next two years pushing down the home prices more than only 10%, especially considering the huge inventory out there (the REOs hold by banks) and not counted in the official statitics. We all know from the beginning that this stress tests 'exercise' is just political and that it is designed only to make it sound like the banking system is in great shape, which of course it is not.
Considering the amount of alt-a and option ARM mortgages that will reset in one and two years (big chunk in 2011, according to data on FED of NY website), I agree with you that the stress tests scenario are far too optimistic. There will be much more foreclosures in the next two years pushing down the home prices more than only 10%, especially considering the huge inventory out there (the REOs hold by banks) and not counted in the official statitics.
ReplyDeleteWe all know from the beginning that this stress tests 'exercise' is just political and that it is designed only to make it sound like the banking system is in great shape, which of course it is not.